Getting Behind the Counterfeit Banknote Statistics

COVID19 led to a decline in the number of counterfeit banknotes in 2020. Or did it?

It did lead to a reduced chance of encountering a counterfeit banknote – not only were normal payment interactions reduced, but in many countries the number of genuine banknotes in circulation surged upwards. This changed the ratio of counterfeit notes to genuine banknotes in circulation, with a consequent drop in the standard ‘parts per million’ (ppm) counterfeit measure used by many central banks.

However, the reality of how COVID-19 impacted counterfeit banknotes is more complex – supply chains and distribution routes of the counterfeiters were disrupted. New methods were adopted.

There were also new entrants into the counterfeit money trade as more people went into poverty and as criminals who were normally involved in drug trafficking and human trafficking sought alternative activities.