Demand for Cash Under Uncertainty: A Global Update for 2023

So called ‘normal times’ ended in many respects more than three years ago, in early 2020. Since then, developments have been characterised by growing uncertainty and volatility, first by the COVID-19 pandemic and disruption of global supply chains, and then by geopolitical tensions created by the Russian attack on Ukraine and inflation of food and energy prices.

Besides several other consequences, these events have had a great impact on the use and demand for cash. Nothing indicates that such developments will stabilise in the near future, not to speak of climate change. These uncertainties mirror the current global update.

In order to get a perspective, this update will start with an analysis of the development of banknote circulation in value terms during the 2010s, which will be compared with the situation in more recent years, and in particular in 2022. After that, developments in banknote volume terms are studied and finally, before concluding, the most recent developments are addressed by considering the annual growth rates of the value of banknotes in circulation in June 2023.