Global Uncertainty Increases – What Does This Mean for Cash?

As of early 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached its highest levels this century, signalling a period of significant macroeconomic volatility ¹. Similarly, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) has nearly tripled, increasing from approximately 16,043 in Q1 2024 to around 48,146 in Q1 2025. This significant surge in uncertainty is global, affecting all regions.

Drivers of uncertainty

The immediate drivers of uncertainty include ongoing global trade tensions, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, domestic policy shifts, rising debt levels, persistent inflation, and volatility in energy and commodity prices. Over the longer- term, challenges such as climate change and the fragmentation of supply chains are amplifying the sense of unpredictability.

Historically, periods of economic uncertainty have led to an increase in the demand for cash ². For example, during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for banknotes surged as people sought secure, tangible forms of value amidst financial instability.